California faces increasing odds of experiencing El Niño and even a rare super El Niño later this year. On Thursday, the National Weather Service issued an updated outlook showing an 82 percent chance that El Niño conditions will shape weather patterns from May through July. Forecasters also raised the probability of the climate pattern continuing through winter to 96 percent, when El Niño typically reaches peak intensity and can bring colder temperatures along with heavier rainfall across the state. Experts now estimate a 35 percent chance that the El Niño expected late this year could become “very strong.” Since 1950, only four super El Niño events have been recorded, with the most recent occurring during 2015 and 2016. Scientists measure El Niño strength by monitoring sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where unusually warm waters can significantly influence global weather patterns and storm activity during the upcoming winter season.
