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THE USC DORNSIFE / LA TIMES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION “DAYBREAK” POLL

Presidential Election Vote

This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November

The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton’s vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump’s (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week.  The gray band is a “95-percent confidence interval”. Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.

Note: If you check back often, you may need to refresh your browser page to see the latest update

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About the USC Dornsife / LA Times “Daybreak” Poll

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.

 

THE USC DORNSIFE / LA TIMES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION “DAYBREAK” POLL

About Dan Schnur

Dan Schnur is the Director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, where he works to motivate students to become involved in politics, government, and public service and teaches popular classes in politics, communications, and leadership. He also is the Founder and Director of the USC Dana and David Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times poll series.
Dan has worked for years as a political reformer and has held several leadership positions in this field. In 2010, Dan was appointed Chairman of the California Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC). During his tenure, he implemented groundbreaking campaign finance disclosure requirements for independent committees, appointed a bipartisan task force to update California’s 1978 Political Reform Act, and worked to assure the disclosure of campaign finance and spending practices, fair elections, and government transparency. Dan also was a founder and co-chairman of the Voices of Reform project, the bi-partisan statewide effort whose work laid the foundation for California’s landmark redistricting reform.

After completing his FPPC term, Dan registered as a no-party preference voter and launched Fixing California, an organization dedicated to campaign finance and political reform. In 2014, Dan ran for statewide office as a non-partisan candidate for California Secretary of State. Dan’s campaign focused on rebuilding the political center, the need for campaign fundraising reform, and increasing civics education in California schools. Dan plans on continuing the discussion on how to fix a current broken system of politics in California to address the challenges facing the state.
In addition to his position at USC, Dan is an Adjunct Instructor at the University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. Dan also has held the post of Visiting Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government’s Institute of Politics at Harvard University and taught an advanced course in political campaign communications at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.